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Employment projections

Jobs and Skills Australia has commissioned Victoria University to produce employment projections to 2033, using their Victoria University Employment Forecasting Model (VUEF). Data are available by industry, occupation and skill level.

Key Points

Employment projections are important to understand how the current expected economic and labour market outlook is impacting Australia’s future workforce needs. Jobs and Skills Australia has commissioned Victoria University to produce employment projections to 2033, using their Victoria University Employment Forecasting Model (VUEF).

The projections have been calibrated to the macroeconomic and labour market outlook provided by the Australian Treasury. The projections are presented over a 5-year period to highlight the shorter-term trends, and over a 10-year horizon to show the impact of longer-term or structural trends.

Caveats

These projections are based off a starting point of employment estimated at May 2023 using the Australian Bureau of Statistics’ Detailed Labour Force Survey and trended by Jobs and Skills Australia, which may not align with estimates of employment from other data sources. Like any forecasts, these projections are based on assumptions and are subject to an inherent degree of uncertainty. They are useful to demonstrate how current trends could be expected to play out rather than as precise predictions of the future. Caution should be exercised when using these projections.