2024 NSW Aboriginal population projections

In 2023-24, Aboriginal Affairs NSW led the development of Aboriginal population projections for New South Wales, in partnership with the NSW Department of Planning, Housing & Infrastructure (DPHI).

The project was informed and guided by internal and external Aboriginal stakeholders including NSW Coalition of Aboriginal Regional Alliances (NCARA) and the NSW Coalition of Aboriginal Peak Organisations (CAPO).

These latest NSW Aboriginal population projections show how Aboriginal population groups across areas in NSW may change between 2021-2041.

The NSW Government has previously never had a consistent set of Aboriginal population projections to use across all agencies for strategic planning, or for communities to use for their own planning and advocacy.

The projections fill this gap, and are based on an improved model of estimating Aboriginal births, migration, and life expectancy across NSW. This is a different method than the one used by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, taking into account increases over time in the number of people who identify as Aboriginal.

For more information, please email aapolicyevidenceandinsights@aboriginalaffairs.nsw.gov.au.