The population of NSW in 2061 - chapter 1

Our population

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2021-22 NSW Intergenerational Report, chapter 1 - population

[Speaker]

Over the next 40 years our population will grow by 40% and life expectancy at birth is projected to increase to 91.7 years for women and to 89.4 years for men. With the median age expected to be 44 years the fertility rate will drop to 1.63 babies per woman by 2032. So, as the fertility rate declines and people live longer migration will become increasingly important for population growth and to help slow the aging of our population.

[music]

The population of NSW is projected to grow to 11.5 million by 2061, up from 8.2 million today.  Our population will be older on average, with one quarter of the NSW population aged 65 or over by 2061, compared to 17% today. 

The fertility rate is expected to structurally decline into the future, reflecting the trend towards having a smaller number of children later in life. We will also be living longer and spending more years in good health.  As the fertility rate declines, migration will become increasingly important for population growth and to slow the ageing of our population. 

Insights and opportunities

• Over the period to 2061, the NSW population is projected to grow by an annual average of 0.8%.  
• Around 40% of this growth will come from natural increase (births minus deaths) and the other 60% will come from net migration.  
• We will be living longer and spending more years in good health, allowing us to continue to participate in the workforce later in life.  
• Migration will become increasingly important for population growth and can help to slow the ageing of the population.